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Frederick W. Derrick Nancy A. Williams Charles E. Scott 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2014,38(2):173-189
This paper advances the ongoing discussion of methods for predicting movie box office revenues with two contributions to the methodology and an out-of-sample test of the model. The first innovation is the development of a two-stage model using publicly available pre-release indicators to predict (1) initial week and (2) subsequent run box office revenues. To incorporate the experience-good nature of movies, the second stage is estimated by incorporating a proxy variable for box office success during the first week relative to predicted first week success. The second contribution is an empirical test of De Vany and Walls’ (J Econ Dyn Control 28:1035–1057, 2004) finding that the distribution of movie revenues has “heavy tails” and follows a non-Gaussian stable distribution with infinite variance. We estimate the two-stage model of a movie’s box office success on all general release movies in 1 year with both the Gaussian and stable distribution with heavy tails and infinite variance and find no evidence for the stable distribution in either stage of the estimation. This two-stage model is validated by comparing all general release movies in 3 future years (out-of-sample data) to the model’s predictions. 相似文献
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J. Bruce Francis Michalina Vaughan Colin Flood Page Sally Tomlinson R. A. Becher Margaret C. Ives John Urry K. G. Collier Meir Zadok Charles Carter Jürgen Schramm Jean Barry Graeme C. Moodie Donald Bligh R. A. King D. G. Mulcahy Peter Scott F. R. Charmer T. R. Bone John A. Hughes Roger Greenhough Alec M. Ross John Wakeford Joyce Skinner Duncan B. Nimmo Cedric Cullingford L. R. B. Elton 《Higher Education》1979,8(6):709-744
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许多运动队将全程比赛分析作为教练员的指导工具,研究己方和对方运动员的类型、战术和技术特点.网球项目中,拥有个人分析师的运动员并不多见,大部分运动员和教练员使用分析设备和程序提供的客观、可靠的反馈信息,自己进行赛前及赛后分析.很多教练员采用其他教练员的有效训练模式,因为不是所有人都有时间去分析1000h的大满贯录像来找出战术差异,但可利用他人的分析结果.赛事录像记录的客观数据提供了充足的反馈信息,教练员可根据这些反馈信息调整技战术,进行针对性的训练. 相似文献
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The role of upper torso and pelvis rotation in driving performance during the golf swing 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
While the role of the upper torso and pelvis in driving performance is anecdotally appreciated by golf instructors, their actual biomechanical role is unclear. The aims of this study were to describe upper torso and pelvis rotation and velocity during the golf swing and determine their role in ball velocity. One hundred recreational golfers underwent a biomechanical golf swing analysis using their own driver. Upper torso and pelvic rotation and velocity, and torso-pelvic separation and velocity, were measured for each swing. Ball velocity was assessed with a golf launch monitor. Group differences (groups based on ball velocity) and moderate relationships (r > or = 0.50; P < 0.001) were observed between an increase in ball velocity and the following variables: increased torso-pelvic separation at the top of the swing, maximum torso-pelvic separation, maximum upper torso rotation velocity, upper torso rotational velocity at lead arm parallel and last 40 ms before impact, maximum torso-pelvic separation velocity and torso-pelvic separation velocity at both lead arm parallel and at the last 40 ms before impact. Torso-pelvic separation contributes to greater upper torso rotation velocity and torso-pelvic separation velocity during the downswing, ultimately contributing to greater ball velocity. Golf instructors can consider increasing ball velocity by maximizing separation between the upper torso and pelvis at the top of and initiation of the downswing. 相似文献